This is the web page for STAT 131 section 1 (spring 2020). The following abbreviations will be used here:

DD = David Draper (Professor; email address draper@ucsc.edu), IG = Isabelle Grenier (TA; email address igrenier@ucsc.edu), HK = Hyotae Kim (TA; email address hkim153@ucsc.edu), DK = Daniel Kirsner (Head TA; email address dkirsner@ucsc.edu), AL = Arthur Lui (TA; email address alui2@ucsc.edu), and DS = DeGroot and Schervish (the textbook for the class).

The catalog description for STAT 131 is as follows:

Introduction to probability theory and its applications. Combinatorial analysis, axioms of probability and independence, random variables (discrete and continuous), joint probability distributions, properties of expectation, Central Limit Theorem, Law of Large Numbers, Markov chains. Students cannot receive credit for this course and course 203 and Computer Engineering 107. Prerequisite(s): course 11B or Economics 11B or Mathematics 11B or 19B or 20B. (General Education Code(s): Q, SR - Statistical Reasoning)

    • (31 Mar 2020) Announcements will be posted in this section. The first Attachment section below will contain scanned PDF copies of the document camera lecture notes and extra lecture notes, as well as case studies and R code; the second Attachment section will contain secure documents, available only by logging into the web page.
AttachmentSize
PDF icon (UPDATED) Tentative syllabus and reading list for STAT 131 this quarter66.5 KB
PDF icon Document camera notes (discussion section: 30 Mar 2020) (functions; continuity; differentiability; WolframAlpha)555.01 KB
PDF icon Document camera notes (lecture: 31 mar 2020) (Equally-Likely Model; conditional probability; working with NOT and OR)373.19 KB
PDF icon Case study: Tay-Sachs disease699.51 KB
PDF icon Quiz 1 in PDF format (due at canvas.ucsc.edu by 11.59pm on Tue 7 Apr 2020)36.46 KB
Plain text icon Quiz 1 in LaTeX format (due at canvas.ucsc.edu by 11.59pm on Tue 7 Apr 2020)2.07 KB
PDF icon Document camera notes (lecture: 2 Apr 2020) (IID and SRS as good random sampling methods; working with AND; independence)399.42 KB
PDF icon Document camera notes (DD office hour: 2 Apr 2020) 125.12 KB
PDF icon Document camera notes (discussion section: 6 Apr 2020, part 1) (conditional probability, independence, Dr. Schram)578.06 KB
PDF icon Document camera notes (discussion section: 6 Apr 2020, part 2) (function optimization; integration; partial differentiation)709.43 KB
PDF icon Case studies: (1) Dr. Schram and (2) Fisher's constitutional hypothesis126.93 KB
PDF icon Quiz 2 in PDF format (due at canvas.ucsc.edu by 11.59pm on Tue 14 Apr 2020)80.99 KB
Plain text icon Quiz 2 in LaTeX format (due at canvas.ucsc.edu by 11.59pm on Tue 14 Apr 2020)1.87 KB
PDF icon Take-Home Test 1 in PDF format (target due date: at canvas.ucsc.edu by 11.59pm on Sun 26 Apr 2020)173.98 KB
Plain text icon Take-Home Test 1 in LaTeX format (target due date: at canvas.ucsc.edu by 11.59pm on Sun 26 Apr 2020)26.6 KB
PDF icon Document camera notes (lecture: 7 Apr 2020, part 1) (part 2 is in the Extra Notes, pp. 1-47)496.56 KB
PDF icon Extra Notes (pages 1-47) (Sample space; set theory; partition; axioms; combinatorics)1.44 MB
PDF icon Case study: death penalty (Simpson's Paradox)54.99 KB
PDF icon Document camera notes (DD office hour: 7 Apr 2020) 556.67 KB
PDF icon Document camera notes (lecture: 9 Apr 2020, part 1) (death penalty case study, Simpson's Paradox)193.58 KB
PDF icon Document camera notes (lecture: 9 Apr 2020, part 2) (RCTs, observational studies, potential confounding factors)1.14 MB
PDF icon Document camera notes (DD office hour: 9 Apr 2020) 478.47 KB
PDF icon Case study: roulette64.25 KB
Plain text icon R code for simulating roulette10.85 KB
PDF icon Document camera notes (discussion section: 13 Apr 2020) (roulette case study: building probability models for sums)187.68 KB
PDF icon Document camera notes (lecture: 14 Apr 2020, part 2) (Law of Total Probability; conditional independence, Bayes's Theorem)319.73 KB
PDF icon Extra Notes (pages 48-100) (conditional probability; independence; Bayes's Theorem; random variables)4.59 MB
PDF icon Document camera notes (DD office hour: 14 Apr 2020) 462 KB
PDF icon Quiz 3 in PDF format (due at canvas.ucsc.edu by 11.59pm on Wed 22 Apr 2020)62.72 KB
Plain text icon Quiz 3 in LaTeX format (due at canvas.ucsc.edu by 11.59pm on Wed 22 Apr 2020)3.04 KB
PDF icon Document camera notes (lecture: 16 Apr 2020) (odds ratios; Bayes's Theorem for true/false propositions, in odds form)866.94 KB
PDF icon Document camera notes (DD office hour: 16 Apr 2020)832.46 KB
PDF icon Case study: Monty Hall100.84 KB
PDF icon Document camera notes (discussion section: 20 Apr 2020) (meta-code: applied math modeling; Bayes's Theorem in odds ratio form)1.49 MB
PDF icon Document camera notes (lecture: 21 Apr 2020) (Bayes's Theorem (method III); discrete rvs; probability mass function (PMF))624.67 KB
PDF icon Document camera notes (DD office hour: 21 Apr 2020)444.88 KB
PDF icon Quiz 4 in PDF format (due at canvas.ucsc.edu by 11.59pm on Wed 29 Apr 2020)94.47 KB
Plain text icon Quiz 4 in LaTeX format (due at canvas.ucsc.edu by 11.59pm on Wed 29 Apr 2020)4.21 KB
PDF icon Document camera notes (lecture: 23 Apr 2020) (cumulative distribution functions (CDFs))296.39 KB
PDF icon Document camera notes (DD office hour: 23 Apr 2020)395.97 KB
Plain text icon R code for visualization (contour and perspective plots) of bivariate PDFs5.58 KB
PDF icon Document camera notes (discussion section: 27 Apr 2020) (computing double integrals)967.35 KB
PDF icon Document camera notes (lecture: 28 Apr 2020) (inverse CDF (quantiles); median; distributional shapes)770.73 KB
PDF icon Document camera notes (DD office hour: 28 Apr 2020)413.71 KB
PDF icon Quiz 5 in PDF format (due at canvas.ucsc.edu by 11.59pm on Wed 6 May 2020)88.88 KB
Plain text icon Quiz 5 in LaTeX format (due at canvas.ucsc.edu by 11.59pm on Wed 6 May 2020)1.96 KB
PDF icon Document camera notes (DD extra office hour: 29 Apr 2020)659 KB
PDF icon Document camera notes (lecture: 30 Apr 2020) (joint and marginal PDFs)445.15 KB
PDF icon Extra Notes (pages 101-150) (bivariate distributions: joint, marginals, conditionals; transformations)3.96 MB
PDF icon Document camera notes (DD office hour: 30 Apr 2020)464.96 KB
PDF icon Document camera notes (DD extra office hour: 1 May 2020)428.17 KB
PDF icon (UPDATED) Document camera notes (DD extra office hour: 2 May 2020)610.28 KB
PDF icon Document camera notes (DD office hour: 3 May 2020)653.86 KB
PDF icon Take-Home Test 2 in PDF format (target due date: at canvas.ucsc.edu by 11.59pm on Sun 24 May 2020)176.28 KB
Plain text icon Take-Home Test 2 in LaTeX format (target due date: at canvas.ucsc.edu by 11.59pm on Sun 24 May 2020)17.41 KB
PDF icon Document camera notes (discussion section: 4 May 2020) (joint, marginal, and conditional PDFs)482.4 KB
PDF icon Document camera notes (lecture: 5 May 2020) (WLLN; joint, marginal, and conditional PDFs and PMFs)710.94 KB
PDF icon Document camera notes (DD office hour: 5 May 2020)303.82 KB
PDF icon Quiz 6 in PDF format (due at canvas.ucsc.edu by 11.59pm on Wed 13 May 2020)87.09 KB
Plain text icon Quiz 6 in LaTeX format (due at canvas.ucsc.edu by 11.59pm on Wed 13 May 2020)2.02 KB
PDF icon Document camera notes (lecture: 7 May 2020) (probability and statistical inference (2 different but related concepts))421.66 KB
PDF icon Document camera notes (DD office hour: 7 May 2020)444.21 KB
PDF icon Document camera notes (discussion section: 11 May 2020) (transformations; inverse probability integral transform)935.65 KB
Plain text icon R code exploring transformations of random variables and random number generation3.5 KB
PDF icon Document camera notes (lecture: 12 May 2020) (conditional independence as an important modeling assumption)229.93 KB
PDF icon Document camera notes (DD office hour: 12 May 2020)266.39 KB
PDF icon Extra Notes (pages 151-200) (transformations, expected value, variance, covariance, correlation, moments)4.46 MB
PDF icon Quiz 7 in PDF format (due at canvas.ucsc.edu by 11.59pm on Fri 22 May 2020)64.97 KB
Plain text icon Quiz 7 in LaTeX format (due at canvas.ucsc.edu by 11.59pm on Fri 22 May 2020)2.14 KB
PDF icon Document camera notes (lecture: 14 May 2020) (transformations/functions of one and two random variables)226.61 KB
PDF icon Document camera notes (DD office hour: 14 May 2020)659.62 KB
Plain text icon R code to explore the concepts of expected value, variance, and standard deviation9.11 KB
PDF icon Document camera notes (discussion section: 18 May 2020) (expected value, variance, standard deviation)514.15 KB
PDF icon Document camera notes (lecture: 19 May 2020) (expected value)274.39 KB
PDF icon Document camera notes (DD office hour: 19 May 2020)460.56 KB
PDF icon Document camera notes (catch-up lecture: 20 May 2020) (variance and standard deviation)626.79 KB
PDF icon Document camera notes (lecture: 20 May 2020) (moments, moment-generating function, mean versus median)458.34 KB
PDF icon Document camera notes (DD office hour: 21 May 2020)380.18 KB
PDF icon Document camera notes (catch-up lecture: 22 May 2020) (covariance and correlation)672.14 KB
PDF icon Document camera notes (DD extra office hour: 22 May 2020)709.11 KB
PDF icon Extra Notes (pages 201-250) (Prediction, covariance, correlation, conditional expectation and variance)4.66 MB
PDF icon Document camera notes (DD extra office hour: 23 May 2020)613.99 KB
PDF icon Document camera notes (DD extra office hour: 24 May 2020)671 KB
PDF icon Document camera notes (discussion section: 26 May 2020) (utility, prediction)235.95 KB
PDF icon Document camera notes (lecture: 26 May 2020) (conditional expectation; regression prediction)344.34 KB
PDF icon Document camera notes (DD office hour: 26 May 2020)608.24 KB
PDF icon Document camera notes (catch-up lecture: 27 May 2020 (sampling variability and bias in estimating a population proportion)630.61 KB
PDF icon Document camera notes (DD extra office hour: 27 May 2020)513.59 KB
PDF icon Document camera notes (lecture: 26 May 2020) (normal distribution: PDF, CDF, inverse CDF)596.81 KB
PDF icon Document camera notes (DD office hour: 28 May 2020)578.06 KB
PDF icon Quiz 8 in PDF format (due at canvas.ucsc.edu by 11.59pm on Wed 3 Jun 2020)98.36 KB
Plain text icon Quiz 8 in LaTeX format (due at canvas.ucsc.edu by 11.59pm on Wed 3 Jun 2020)5.7 KB
PDF icon Document camera notes (catch-up lecture: 29 May 2020 (normal approximation to data; properties of sample mean as r. variable)398.8 KB
PDF icon Document camera notes (DD extra office hour: 29 May 2020)436.13 KB
PDF icon Take-Home Test 3, part 1 (required) in PDF format (due at canvas.ucsc.edu by 11.59pm on Sun 14 Jun 2020)173.65 KB
Plain text icon Take-Home Test 3, part 1 (required) in LaTeX format (due at canvas.ucsc.edu by 11.59pm on Sun 14 Jun 2020)14.26 KB
PDF icon Figure 1 for Take-Home Test 3, part 1 (required) in PDF format, to include in your solutions if you wish)11.7 KB
PDF icon Take-Home Test 3, part 2 (extra credit) in PDF format (due at canvas.ucsc.edu by 11.59pm on Sun 14 Jun 2020)145.04 KB
Plain text icon Take-Home Test 3, part 2 (extra credit) in LaTeX format (due at canvas.ucsc.edu by 11.59pm on Sun 14 Jun 2020)8.68 KB
PDF icon Extra Notes (pages 251-300) (Many distributions, e.g., normal, bivariate normal)4.35 MB
PDF icon Extra Notes (pages 301-348) (WLLN, CLT, Markov chains)4.16 MB
PDF icon Document camera notes (DD extra office hour): 30 May 2020392.33 KB
PDF icon Document camera notes (catch-up lecture: 30 May 2020) (key diagram illustrating frequentist inference, WLLN, CLT)453.36 KB
PDF icon Document camera notes (extra office hour: 31 May 2020)392.33 KB
Plain text icon R code to explore the Binomial and Poisson distributions as a function of their parameters5.09 KB
PDF icon Extra notes for discussion section 10 (Poisson distribution, Poisson process)1.38 MB
PDF icon Document camera notes (discussion section: 1 Jun 2020) (Poisson distribution and process)129.38 KB
PDF icon Quiz 9 (extra credit only) in PDF format (due at canvas.ucsc.edu by 11.59pm on Tue 9 Jun 2020)110.4 KB
Plain text icon Quiz 9 (extra credit only) in LaTeX format (due at canvas.ucsc.edu by 11.59pm on Tue 9 Jun 2020)4.71 KB
PDF icon Document camera notes (lecture: 2 Jun 2020) (Delta method)91.42 KB
PDF icon Document camera notes (DD office hour): 2 Jun 2020276.69 KB
PDF icon Quiz 10 (extra credit only) in PDF format (due at canvas.ucsc.edu by 11.59pm on Tue 9 Jun 2020)83.01 KB
Plain text icon Quiz 10 (extra credit only) in PDF format (due at canvas.ucsc.edu by 11.59pm on Tue 9 Jun 2020)4.18 KB
PDF icon Linear algebra notes (vectors, matrices, and their arithmetic operations)1000.9 KB
PDF icon Document camera notes (catch-up lecture): 3 Jun 2020 (Markov chains, bivariate normal distribution)237.08 KB
PDF icon Document camera notes (lecture: 4 Jun 2020 (Markov chains, bivariate normal distribution)667.53 KB
PDF icon Document camera notes (DD office hour): 4 Jun 2020544.83 KB
PDF icon Document camera notes (catch-up lecture): 5 Jun 2020 (large-sample confidence intervals for the population mean)610.63 KB
PDF icon Document camera notes (DD extra office hour): 5 Jun 2020349.63 KB
PDF icon Document camera notes (DD extra office hour): 6 Jun 2020396.4 KB
PDF icon Document camera notes (DD extra office hour): 7 Jun 2020328.61 KB
PDF icon Document camera notes (DD extra office hour): 8 Jun 2020613.09 KB
PDF icon Document camera notes (DD extra office hour): 9 Jun 2020323.76 KB
PDF icon Document camera notes (DD extra office hour): 10 Jun 2020351.37 KB
PDF icon Document camera notes (DD extra office hour): 11 Jun 20201.16 MB